A nature-positive future with biological invasions: theory, decision support and research needs.

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Megaherbivores provide biotic resistance against alien plant dominance.

While human-driven biological invasions are rapidly spreading, finding scalable and effective control methods poses an unresolved challenge. Here, we assess whether megaherbivores-herbivores reaching ≥1,000 kg of body mass-offer a nature-based solution to plant invasions. Invasive plants are generally adapted to maximize vegetative growth. Megaherbivores, with broad dietary tolerances, could remove large biomass of established plants, facilitating new plant growth. We used a massive dataset obtained from 26,838 camera stations and 158,979 vegetation plots to assess the relationships between megaherbivores, native plants and alien plants across India (~121,330 km2). We found a positive relationship between megaherbivore abundance and native plant richness and abundance, and a concomitant reduction in alien plant abundance. This relationship was strongest in protected areas with midproductive ecosystem and high megaherbivore density but it was lost in areas where thicket-forming alien plants predominated (>40% cover). By incorporating the role of ecosystem productivity, plants traits and densities of megaherbivores on megaherbivore-vegetation relationships, our study highlights a function of megaherbivores in controlling alien plant proliferation and facilitating diverse native plants in invaded ecosystems. The study shows great potential for megafauna-based trophic rewilding as a nature-based solution to counteract dominance of plant invasions.

Gharial nesting in a reservoir is limited by reduced river flow and by increased bank vegetation.

The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus Gmelin) is a fish-eating specialist crocodylian, endemic to south Asia, and critically endangered in its few remaining wild localities. A secondary gharial population resides in riverine-reservoir habitat adjacent to the Nepal border, within the Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary (KWS), and nests along a 10 km riverbank of the Girwa River. A natural channel shift in the mainstream Karnali River (upstream in Nepal) has reduced seasonal flow in the Girwa stretch where gharials nest, coincident with a gradual loss of nest sites, which in turn was related to an overall shift to woody vegetation at these sites. To understand how these changes in riparian vegetation on riverbanks were related to gharial nesting, we sampled vegetation at these sites from 2017 to 2019, and derived an Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from LANDSAT 8 satellite data to quantify riverside vegetation from 1988 through 2019. We found that sampled sites transitioned to woody cover, the number of nesting sites declined, and the number of nests were reduced by > 40%. At these sites, after the channel shift, woody vegetation replaced open sites that predominated prior to the channel shift. Our findings indicate that the lack of open riverbanks and the increase in woody vegetation at potential nesting sites threatens the reproductive success of the KWS gharial population. This population persists today in a regulated river ecosystem, and nests in an altered riparian habitat which appears to be increasingly unsuitable for the continued successful recruitment of breeding adults. This second-ranking, critically endangered remnant population may have incurred an "extinction debt" by living in a reservoir that will lead to its eventual extirpation.